Consumers who feel more confident about the economy generally also feel better about their employment prospects and are therefore more willing to buy houses, cars, appliances, and other items. Investors should look at the stocks of car manufacturers, home builders, and other retailers that typically see sales rise when the economy begins an expansion period. All components of the index improved from June levels, with optimism increasing by 19% for long-term business conditions. Friday's report showed that job prospects and lower inflation have consistently boosted consumer sentiment about economic conditions in recent months. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a national survey of 500 households conducted by the University of Michigan.

• WASHINGTON, Feb 10 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment improved to a 13-month high in February, but households expected higher inflation to persist over the next 12 months, a survey showed on Friday.
• "The sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets," the report read.
• Consumer sentiment was little changed in September, inching down a mere 1.4 index points from August, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
• About 60% of each monthly survey consists of new responses, and the remaining 40% is drawn from repeat surveys.
• Those levels are considerably lower than last summer, when headline inflation topped 9%, leaving consumers struggling with high prices for everything from groceries to used vehicles.

The report countered hopes that inflation had peaked in March and signaled it will likely be harder than initially expected to slow price growth. The university's index for current economic conditions deteriorated to 55.4 from 63.3, while the measure for consumer expectations sank to 46.8 from 55.2. Not only have Americans had it with today's economy, they aren't very hopeful that things will get better. The final reading of the consumer sentiment index dipped to 68.1 in September from 69.5 in August, according to data from a survey carried out by the University of Michigan released Friday. When consumer confidence increases, certain sectors tend to benefit sooner than others. Companies that provide consumer goods often reap the initial fruits of improved consumer sentiment.

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The purpose of the survey is to collect information about consumer expectations regarding the overall economy. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the world’s largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals via desktop terminals, the world's media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers.

The Fed meets during the last week of July to consider its next move in the fight against inflation. "Consumer sentiment rose for the second straight month, soaring 13% above June and reaching its most favorable reading since September 2021," the preliminary survey from the University of Michigan read. July 14 (UPI) -- Consumer sentiment in July rose to its highest level since 2021, a survey by the University of Michigan released on Friday found. The Friday report paints a bleak picture for the future of the economic recovery. Consumer spending counts for about 70% of economic activity, making it a crucial ingredient for bringing the US back to pre-pandemic health.

• Not only have Americans had it with today's economy, they aren't very hopeful that things will get better.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Morningstar Index (Market Barometer) quotes are real-time.
• Not good news when food continues to be expensive and energy prices are shooting up again.
• Higher inflation forced the Federal Reserve to adopt an aggressive monetary policy stance, with the U.S. central bank hiking its policy rate 450 basis points since last March from near zero to a 4.50%-4.75% range.
• Relative to last month, a higher share of consumers mentioned high prices as a reason for poor buying conditions for durables and vehicles, as well as the erosion of their living standards.

For more information about the Michigan CSI and its impact on economic analysis, consult your investment advisor or log on to the Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan website. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board’s survey. Two of the most important numbers that investors listen for every month are based on surveys that aim at understanding and tracking the behavior and mood of the American consumer. Since about two-thirds of the American economy consists of consumer spending, it's understandable that their mood is a constant source of anxiety to American investors. The Surveys of Consumers is a rotating panel survey at the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research.

Forty-six percent of surveyed consumers linked their pessimism to elevated inflation, Joanne Hsu, director of the university's Surveys of Consumers, said in the report. That's up from 38% in May and the second-largest share since 1981, when inflation last trended so high. Credit card debt, after having fallen after the previous high point of the pandemic with the large amounts of aid sent to millions, is back up beyond to where it had been before the pandemic and is now at new historical heights.

Indeed, the survey's one-year inflation expectation fell to a six-month low of 5.0% from 5.2%, while its five-year inflation outlook edged up to 3.0% from 2.9%, holding within a range that has prevailed for the past year. US Index of Consumer Sentiment is at a current level of 68.10, down from 69.50 last month and up from 58.60 one year ago. The more optimistic that consumers feel about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is published by the Conference Board, a not-for-profit research organization for businesses. The survey is a sample of 3,000 households from across all nine census regions.

The survey questions consumers on their views of their own personal finances, as well as the short-term and long-term state of the U.S. economy. Each survey contains approximately 50 core questions, and each respondent is contacted again for another survey six months after completing the first one. The survey's measure of current economic conditions increased to a reading of 72.6 this month from 68.4 in January. Its gauge of consumer expectations dipped to 62.3 from a reading of 62.7 last month, likely reflecting lingering recession fears. The preliminary report is generally released during the middle of the month and covers survey responses collected in the first two weeks of the month.

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Historically speaking, the value of the dollar has usually risen whenever the Michigan CSI has come in at a higher level than was anticipated and fallen when the index came in lower. About 60% of each monthly survey consists of new responses, and the remaining 40% is drawn from repeat surveys. The repeat surveys help reveal the changes in consumer sentiment over time and provide a more accurate measure of consumer confidence. The survey also attempts to accurately incorporate consumer expectations into behavioral spending and saving models in an empirical fashion. The US Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), as provided by University of Michigan, tracks consumer sentiment in the US, based on surveys on random samples of US households.

US Index of Consumer Sentiment (I:USCS)

"If recession is coming consumers sure don't know it," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. "We expect the retail sales report covering the month of January will pop back into positive territory and we already know consumers bought a lot of cars and light trucks for the first month of the year." The improvement in sentiment was probably driven by a rally on the stock market and persistent labor financial intelligence, revised edition market strength. It raised hope that the economy could avoid the much-feared recession and that any downturn would likely be short and mild, economists said. Rising sentiment also suggested that the sharp declines in retail sales in November and December were a fluke. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has provided a relatively accurate forecast of future consumer confidence and spending for the past several decades.

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The survey is based on telephone interviews that gather information on consumer expectations for the economy. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index cratered to 50.2 from 58.4 in an early June reading, according to a Friday report. That reflects the lowest level since regular monthly data collection began in the late 1970s. The print also landed well below the median forecast of 58.1 from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Looking at labor markets more broadly, 36% of consumers expected unemployment rates to rise in the year ahead, up from 32% last month. Still, though, only 16.7% believed that unemployment will pose greater problems for the economy than inflation in the upcoming year; this is the lowest reading since November 2022.

Sentiment among U.S. consumers weakened slightly in September, amid greater uncertainty about the direction of the economy. To calculate the CSI, first compute the relative scores (the percent giving favorable replies minus the percent giving unfavorable stop loss vs take profit replies, plus 100) for each of the five index questions. Using the formula shown below, add the five relative scores, divide by the 1966 base period total of 6.7558, and add 2.0 (a constant to correct for sample design changes from the 1950s).

Personal finances of consumers weaken slightly

The Michigan CSI has grown from its inception to be regarded as one of the leading indicators of consumer sentiment in the United States. History shows that consumer confidence has been at its lowest point just prior to and in the midst of recessionary periods. The index rises heikin ashi trading strategy when consumers regain confidence in the economy, which portends increased consumer spending and thus economic growth. This growth, in turn, leads to greater interest from foreign investors, which results in the increased value of the dollar against other foreign currencies.

U.S. consumer sentiment improves; inflation expectations rise

Erika Rasure is globally-recognized as a leading consumer economics subject matter expert, researcher, and educator. She is a financial therapist and transformational coach, with a special interest in helping women learn how to invest. Elsewhere, seasonally adjusted first-time claims of unemployment totaled 237,000 for the week ending July 8 -- lower than the comparable week a year ago, but continued claims for all unemployment programs were higher. This is because the data includes interviews conducted up to a day or two right before the official release. The Consumer Confidence Index is released on the last Tuesday of every month. Personal expenditure inflation is coming down, but not fast enough and prices are still high.

Readings of consumers' current economic conditions dipped on the month, but the survey's index of consumer expectations rose slightly in September. WASHINGTON, Feb 10 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment improved to a 13-month high in February, but households expected higher inflation to persist over the next 12 months, a survey showed on Friday. Several major economic indices and indicators can help investors and economists predict where the economy is headed. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) all forecast the future strength of the U.S. economy. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is another key indicator designed to illustrate the average U.S. consumer's confidence level.

The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 68.1 in the September 2023 survey, down from 69.5 in August and above last September’s 58.6. The Current Index fell to 71.4, down from 75.7 in August and above last September’s 59.7. The Expectations Index rose to 66.0, up from 65.5 in August and above last September’s 58.0. The preliminary August reading was above the median forecast of 52.5 among economists polled by Reuters. Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams.

The final report is released at the end of the month and covers the full month. Whether the sentiment is optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral, the survey signals information about near-term consumer spending plans. Relative to last month, a higher share of consumers mentioned high prices as a reason for poor buying conditions for durables and vehicles, as well as the erosion of their living standards. In spite of these recent upticks, though, consumer views are broadly similar to just a few months ago, Hsu says. Indeed, consumers do not expect the recent elevation in oil prices will necessarily lead to increased gas prices in the year ahead. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a monthly survey of consumer confidence levels in the United States conducted by the University of Michigan.